Validation report — 2026-Q2
Generated automatically 2026-04-29 by pipeline:validate. Per methodology/governance.md and the CLAUDE.md "Validation" section.
Baseline divergence
Our structural baseline (weighted overall) = 85.0.
Threshold for a methodology review: persistent divergence > 10 points across two consecutive quarters against a reference index (V-Dem or EIU). Short-term deviations are tolerated — our score weights pillars differently from external indices and includes a weekly event component.
| External index | External (0–100) | Compared target | Value | Δ | Above threshold? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V-Dem (2024) | 81.7 | baseline overall | 85.0 | +3.3 | ✓ |
| EIU (2024) | 80.8 | baseline overall | 85.0 | +4.2 | ✓ |
| FH-FitW (2025) | 95.0 | baseline overall | 85.0 | -10.0 | ✓ |
| RSF (2025) | 84.0 | pillar media | 92.0 | +8.0 | ✓ |
| TI-CPI (2024) | 59.0 | pillar corruption | 59.0 | +0.0 | ✓ |
| WJP (2024) | 74.0 | pillar judicial | 83.9 | +9.9 | ✓ |
Single-dimension indices (RSF, TI CPI, WJP) are compared with a specific pillar, not with the overall score. RSF↔media, TI CPI↔corruption, WJP↔judicial. Multi-dimension (V-Dem LDI, EIU, FH FitW) are overall composites → compared to our weighted overall.
Conclusion: no external index shows divergence > 10 pts. The baseline is within normal variability.
Latest snapshot vs baseline
Latest snapshot: 2026-W17 — overall 84.3. Shift from baseline: -0.7 pts (from 8 active events).
| Pillar | Baseline | Snapshot | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| electoral | 91.8 | 91.8 | +0.0 |
| governance | 86.3 | 84.3 | -2.0 |
| judicial | 83.9 | 83.4 | -0.5 |
| media | 92.0 | 91.5 | -0.5 |
| civil | 96.9 | 96.4 | -0.5 |
| corruption | 59.0 | 58.5 | -0.5 |
Per-pillar diagnostics
Mapping recap (from methodology/structural_mapping.md):
- electoral (15 %) = 91.8
- governance (20 %) = 86.3
- judicial (20 %) = 83.9
- media (15 %) = 92.0
- civil (15 %) = 96.9
- corruption (15 %) = 59.0
If divergence in section 1 crosses the threshold, investigate which pillar contributes most. Common sources of noise:
corruptionhas only TI CPI (single source), so our pillar = TI CPI exact value. Any divergence must come from elsewhere.judicialuses WJP overall as a proxy (per-factor data unavailable). Divergence against WJP itself = 0.- FH uses a 4-point scale across 7 categories, so small differences in FH get amplified when normalised to 0–100.
This report is generated automatically via npm run pipeline:validate -- --quarter=<Q>. For new quarters a new file is created; existing ones are overwritten after a new run (versioning is kept by git).